CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING OUR WEATHER WITH A TRACE OR MORE: 35%
CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING OUR AREA WITH OVER .25″ OF RAIN: 15%
CHANCE OF ISAAC AFFECTING OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1″+ OF RAIN: 10%
ALL CHANCES ARE HIGHER OUT TOWARDS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS THROUGH CENTRAL MO
Actually that title is a little deceptive, it’s rare when a tropical storm with winds 39 MPH+ can hold together long enough without the fuel of warm water from the Gulf area, to make it up into the two state area, but tropical depressions, the remains of hurricanes/tropical storms with winds of under 39 MPH around the storm can make an occasional appearance in this part of the country. I won’t say it’s rare but it’s not exactly common either. I went through the records to find some previous tropical systems that have affected our region.
First lets take a look at all the systems that have moved into MO…
Here is the link to that map so you can see all the storms.
Click on that image to make it larger. I think there are 30 different systems that have lived long enough as a depression or storm to make it to MO. The last tropical storm to be “officially” a tropical storm to live that long was Ike back in 2008. Interesting Gustav also affected MO that same year and actually gave us 1.16″ of rain over a two day period! Ike on the other hand being just a bit further east gave us maybe .02″ of rain that day it moved across MO, however I’m not sure if that was a direct response to Ike or because of a strong cold front that moved into the region that early AM. Gustav though I’m confident about.
Since storms have been named, I counted 10 systems to make it up towards MO…these are Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), Rita (2005), Barry (2001), Gilbert (1988), Bonnie (1986), Elena (1985), Claudette (1979), Candy (1968), and Carla (1961).
Aside from Gilbert that gave us .45″ of rainfall all the others were under 1/10″ with 4 of them giving us nothing. I mentioned Gustav already…there is another storm Carla that in the days leading up to the storm, we picked up 6.5″ of rain from 9/11-13 of 1968 but on the day the storm was moving through MO we got nothing. I just looked at the archived maps from that time period and Carla was getting absorbed into a strong storm across the N Plains at the time, so there was a connection I feel.
On the KS side there are very few that have made a visit to the Sunflower State. I think it’s less than 3 as this data will prove. Alica in 1983 was the most recent and we received a whooping .01″ of rainfall.
So what is the point of all this, well history suggests that is rather unusual for anything “tropical” to make it this far north and even if they manage to do so, with rare exception odds favor little to no rainfall.
Has there ever been a system to come directly on top of the KC area? The answer is yes and it was back in 1921 on June 25-26th! The next closest depression was the remains of what was the infamous Galveston Hurricane of 1900 that killed between 6,000-12,000 people. Our weather almanac data indicates that we received about 2/10″ of rainfall from that famous storm.
Anyway some interesting history for us tropical weather buffs!
If you want to follow the rain from Isaac as it comes ashore…here is radar from New Orleans.
KR and MT will update you during the newscasts.
Joe